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After the virus: Lessons to learn

July 7, 2020

Adapted from an article published by the World Gold Council on June 23rd, 2020  

 

 

If, as you ponder what life might look like beyond the current traumas and damage of the COVID-19 pandemic, you also find yourself asking what lessons of value may have been learnt from the crisis, you are certainly not alone. This train of thought has been preoccupying the minds of business and political leaders (and commentators) across the globe. It has been particularly dominant among those considering how we might plan to build greater resilience in the future, particularly when it comes to managing the climate crisis.

 

A recent message from the UN’s COVID-19 Response team states, “As the world begins planning for a post-pandemic recovery, the United Nations is calling on Governments to seize the opportunity to “build back better” by creating more sustainable, resilient and inclusive societies”.1  

You will likely have heard this phrase, ‘build back better’, quite a lot recently. It is taken to refer to opportunities to not only restore what was damaged or destroyed by a disaster but to build greater resilience in the recovery process to systematically address causes of potential vulnerability.

So, what lessons might we derive from the pandemic and our response to it in order to build back better? And, of course, what does this have to do with gold?

 

Before I seek to answer these questions (or at least suggest ways in which they might be addressed), I am reminded of another phrase - the ‘New Normal’ - that also seems to become ubiquitous after major crises. In the wake of a crisis, we often expect a radically and enduringly changed world, in which previously extreme or abnormal conditions are made commonplace. Conversely, however, we often also seek comfort in the prospect of reverting to norm.

 

You may remember after the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2008-09, we were frequently informed we would have to adjust to a very different set of realities; to adapt to a post-GFC world, we would need to reconsider our approach to market risk, extend our horizons, look to the long term, and acknowledge the interconnectedness of the modern world. And yet, for a great many people and organisations, the New Normal rapidly started to look a lot like the Old Normal and all those urgent calls to change our ways were soon and easily forgotten.

 

 

For years prior to the GFC, the World Gold Council had been proposing that investors adapt a longer-term perspective, better risk management and greater portfolio diversification, while consistently and repeatedly demonstrating that gold could play a significant role in protecting portfolios in times of duress. And in the wake of the crisis, gold’s performance did not disappoint. While there are still questions regarding what institutional investors actually learnt from that challenging period, sufficient numbers of them (and central bankers) took note of gold’s outperformance to cause a rapid and substantial change in the overall structure of gold demand; these buyers have been the key source of growth in the gold market ever since.

I mention this because, while many investors may previously have proven to have short memories after a crisis, in the context of climate change, returning to old habits - defining recovery via a reversion to ‘Business As Usual’ - is simply not an option open to anyone. 

 

Here are some lessons we hope to learn from the current pandemic:

  • Governments, businesses and individuals can act swiftly and at the scale required to avert disastrous consequences
    If we establish and maintain a similar level of commitment and take concerted action to align our emissions with the Paris Agreement, we might be able to ‘flatten the climate curve’,2 while ensuring we also build greater resilience.
    The Responsible Gold Mining Principles, launched by the World Gold Council late last year, include a clear commitment from our member gold mining companies to support “the objectives of global climate accords through avoidance, reduction or mitigation of carbon emissions” while enhancing the ability of their “operations and nearby communities to be resilient to the effects of climate change”.3
  • Significant opportunity for economic transformation
    To achieve net zero carbon emissions by around 2050 – a pre-requisite to stabilising the climate over the century - will require radical changes across all corners of the economy and society, including the restructuring of energy, land use, transport and buildings, with unwavering support from governments, businesses and individuals. Before COVID-19, the prospect of implementing such colossal structural changes looked overwhelming to many. However, the scale of the financial and social support packages and plans to resuscitate the global post-pandemic economy now make such substantial actions look far more achievable. The opportunities to link those support and recovery plans with specific Paris-aligned objectives are now clearly evident to policy makers, regulators and investors. The World Economic Forum, launching its ‘Great Reset’ initiative, recently commented, “We have looked at ways to “build back better” and it’s very clear that investing in greener economies is going to be a huge part of recovery efforts.4 Other leaders at the WEF event, including Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of the IMF, agreed that “this moment of crisis was also a moment of opportunity to chart a different course”.5

    And, even as I write this, Reuters reports that Mark Carney, ex-Bank of England Governor turned UN Special Envoy for Climate Action and Finance, is telling investors they have an “enormous opportunity” to enable the shift to a low-carbon future in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic.6
  • Recognising the time is now
    Cognisant of the strong business case for energy transition, many mining companies are already embracing change. If the sector continues to acknowledge climate-related risks as a strategic driver of business interests and increasingly at the heart of investment decisions, it might also be able to demonstrate sectoral leadership in its responses. This, in turn, might create further opportunities to widen investor interest in - and societal appreciation of - the industry.
  • How climate-related risks and future scenarios are likely to impact the value of people’s investments and the performance of their portfoliosWith this in mind, the World Gold Council’s research on climate change has sought to not only identify a credible path for the gold mining sector to move towards carbon neutrality, but to also offer insights into how gold’s value as an asset might be impacted by climate risks.
    The acceptance that climate impacts will reshape future asset performance is increasingly mainstream investment thinking, and the regulatory environment was already moving to formalise this well before COVID-19. But the greening of the post-pandemic recovery might be the trigger needed to accelerate this tendency, translating it from aspirational trend into established good practice.
    Climate change has been described as ‘COVID-19 in slow motion’7 and it requires a long-term perspective to understand the risks and opportunities it represents, and to plan accordingly.
  • A key lesson for investors emerging from the pandemic is the need for protection or ‘insurance’ against the economic and convergent market responses to global crises. Surveying the investment landscape in the wake of the damage inflicted by COVID-19 lockdowns, the asset that stands out, having again demonstrated its resilience and reliability as a safe store of value in troubled times, is gold. 

Emerging from the severe constraints and damage of the COVID-19 crisis, we should grasp the opportunity to learn from recent challenges and construct the recovery in a way that reduces risks and boosts resilience in the face of a changing climate and its potential catastrophic consequences. Those invested in gold, or as stakeholders in the industry, might find cause for optimism in the positive role gold can play in the transition to a net zero carbon future and, ultimately, in helping build a more secure and sustainable tomorrow.

 

 

Footnotes

 

1 https://www.un.org/en/un-coronavirus-communications-team/un-urges-countries-‘build-back-better’

2 https://www.economist.com/briefing/2020/05/21/can-covid-help-flatten-the-climate-curve

3 Principle 10.3 – Combating climate change, Responsible Gold Mining Principles, 2019, World Gold Council

4 https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/05/covid-19-risks-outlook-saadia-zahidi/

5 https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/06/end-fossil-fuel-subsidies-economy-imf-georgieva-great-reset-climate/

6 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-climate-summit-idUSKBN23C2NV

7 ‘Will COVID-19 fiscal recovery packages accelerate or retard progress on climate change?’, Smith School Working Paper 20-02. (2020). Hepburn, C., O’Callaghan, B., Stern, N., Stiglitz, J., and Zenghelis, D.

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